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Housing Sales to Remain Strong Despite Modest Launches in First Half


Annual sales increase by 22%; share of affordable and mid-income housing remains over 50% across top cities

· Key markets of Mumbai, Bengaluru and Delhi NCR accounted for more than 60% of the total sales

· New launches across the seven cities dipped by 11% except Mumbai and Bengaluru.

· A sizeable 58% of new supply that hit the prime markets in H1 2019 was in the affordable and mid-price segment; supply mainly concentrated in the peripheral areas of the cities

· Pune followed by Chennai and Bengaluru have the maximum share of affordable and mid-price units in new launches.

 Sales are expected to remain strong despite modest new launches in the country witnessed during the first half of the year (H1 2019), according to the latest JLL report, Residential Market Update – H1 2019, released today. With Hyderabad being on top among the seven cities, residential real estate market witnessed an increase of 22% in sales at a pan-India level during the period, it said. Interestingly, the share of affordable and mid-income housing (ticket size of up to INR 10 million in Mumbai and INR 7.5 million across other cities), has seen an increase up to 58% at the country level, the report added. Pune tops th e list, with 91% of the new supply falling in the affordable and mid-income category

The report added, with gradual revival in homebuyers’ confidence and improved affordability, markets witnessed a resurgence in sales in 2018. The resurgence continued in H1 2019.
Sales on a strong footing

H1 2016
H2 2016
H1 2017
H2 2017
H1 2018
H2 2018
H1 2019
Mumbai
13,408
12,565
12,309
12,074
13,659
13,199
17,037
Bengaluru
16,540< /o:p>
15,919
13,078
11,902
13,382
15,758
14,978
Delhi NCR
21,610
12,697
8,272
6,168
10,383
14,342
14,789
Pune
9,431
9,429
9,777
7,844
9,988
11,506
10,824
Hyderabad
5,513
3,363
1,768
1,724
5,476
7,726
9,036
Chennai
9,227
8,036
5,255
3,885
8,237
6,186
7,660
Kolkata
4,442
5,655
778
1,524
2,955
3,721
3,923
Overall
80,171
67,664
51,237
45,121
64,080
72,438
78,247
During H1 2019, Hyderabad recorded the highest growth in sales at 65%, followed by Delhi NCR (42%) on a y-o-y basis. In Chennai, sales grew by 24% over H2 2018, however it is yet to match the levels of H1 2018.

Sales are likely to receive a further fillip with progressive policies of the government. During the first quarter this year, the government further lowered GST rates on affordable homes to 1% from the earlier 8%, without input tax credit (ITC). The GST on projects under construction, which are not under the affordable housing segment, was reduced to 5% from 12%. The rate revision augurs well for homebuyers as the process of claiming the ITC under the former system was complex. 
“Series of reforms and rising buyers’ interest in the segment have propelled the sector to align itself to the market demand. Interestingly, in most cities, homebuyers continue to focus on ready to move in projects and projects nearing completion. As a result of this shift in buying preference, developers too are focused on c ompleting their ongoing projects,” said Ramesh Nair, CEO & Country Head, JLL India.
With developers focusing on delivery of already launched projects, new launches of residential units decreased by 11% on a y-o-y basis across the top seven cities, the report added. With the exception of Mumbai and Bengaluru, where launches grew y-o-y, all other cities saw a dip during H1 2019. Mumbai, Delhi NCR and Bengaluru continued to dominate launches and formed three-fourth of the overall launches during this period.
“Limited number of launches by developers, in a way, is helping the sector to balance the demand supply scenario in the country. This will act as a cushion and help the sector revive. As a result of the reform measures more specifically RERA and GST, we expect more transparency in the sector which in turn will bring back buyers’ confidence. ” said Siva Krishnan, MD - Residential Services, Developer Solutions and Strategic Consulting.

Launches on a slower track

H1 2016
H2 2016
H1 2017
H2 2017
H1 2018
H2 2018
H1 2019
Mumbai
11,088
12,400
12,590
20,252
18,196
21,774
28,723
Bengaluru
18,474
9,638
9,287
11,370
16,495
20,791
18,273
Delhi NCR
6,065
5,703
4,920
3,327
11,960
5,700
8,073
Pune
12,855
12,551
9,974
7,978
10,390
10,294
6,776
Hyderabad
10,905
3,702
4,484
6,123
8,920
6,735
4,363
Chennai
8,751
6,157
2,370
6,702
8,596
5,328
4,189
Kolkata
8,473
1,571
2,446
2,452
7,736
6,537
2,652
Overall
76,611
51,722
46,071
58,204
82,293
77,159
73,049
Source: JLL REIS

The report added that a substantial decline in launches combined with a strong growth in sales in H1 2019 has brought a parity between year-to-sell (YTS) and average construction period across cities. “With Delhi NCR and Kolkata being the exception, the average YTS at 3.4 years across the 7 cities compares favourably with the average construction period for a typical residential project across these cities at 3-4 years,” said Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research & REIS, JLL India.   

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